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2026 HOUSING FORECAST

UTAH HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK:
What to Expect in 2026

Thinking about buying or selling a home this year? Here’s what you need to know about Utah’s 2026 real estate forecast:

Headwinds Slowing the Market

Some challenges are keeping the market from moving too fast:

  • Economic Uncertainty: Utah’s economy is still strong, but growth is slowing a bit.
  • Fewer People Moving In: The pace of people relocating to Utah has dipped.
  • Low Locked-in Rates: Over 60% of homeowners have mortgage rates below 4%, so many are choosing to stay put rather than sell and lose their great rate.

What’s Helping Keep Things Moving

That said, a few key factors are giving the market a gentle push forward:

  • Lower Mortgage Rates: Rates have improved and are now hovering in the low 6% range—making homeownership more accessible.
  • Steady Recovery: This is our fourth year of bouncing back from the pandemic, and the market is finding its rhythm again.
  • Younger Buyers: Utah has a growing number of young households entering the market, keeping demand healthy.

What the Numbers Say

  • Home Prices: Prices are expected to stay steady with just a slight 1% increase—great news for both buyers and sellers.
  • Sales Activity: Sales are projected to rise 2.5% compared to last year:
    • Single-family homes: 8,600 sales (up 2%)
    • Condos, townhomes, twin homes: 3,500 sales (up 3%)
    • Total sales: 12,100 homes changing hands

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RUNNING IN PLACE
Salt Lake County Residential Real Estate Market in 2025 and 2026

LITTLE CHANGE IN MAJOR INDICATORS
Salt Lake County’s housing market held relatively steady in 2025, showing resilience amid shifting economic conditions. Residential sales experienced only a slight dip, down 2.4% to 11,797 homes—about 300 fewer than in 2024. Meanwhile, the median home price rose by 1.9%, reaching $550,000. Over the past three years, pricing has remained consistent, with a modest 3.8% increase from $530,000 in 2022. This reflects a stable market environment that continues to offer long-term value.

Single-family homes continue to make up about 70% of all transactions, while condominiums, townhomes, and twin homes account for the remaining 30%. The median days on market increased slightly from 29 days in 2024 to 36 days in 2025, suggesting a slower pace—but also giving buyers more room to make thoughtful decisions. Overall, the market continues to offer opportunity and stability for both buyers and sellers heading into 2026.

HISTORICAL COMPARISON SHOWS SALES ARE WEAK
While home sales per capita in Salt Lake County remain below historical averages, the consistency of recent years points to a stable foundation for future growth. Over the past three years, sales have averaged between 9.4 and 9.9 homes per 1,000 residents—lower than the 25-year average of 13.7, but showing signs of leveling. Given changing economic conditions, interest rates, and shifting buyer behavior, the current pace reflects a market in transition, with potential for recovery as confidence improves. (Figure 1).

HOUSING PRICES ARE “STICKY”
The median sales price of a home in Salt Lake County rose 40% between 2020 and 2022, marking the strongest price growth in Utah’s real estate history. Following that unprecedented increase, combined with pandemic-driven demand and the sharp rise in mortgage rates in 2022, many expected a significant price correction in 2023. Instead, prices proved resilient, declining by just 2.8%. Historically, meaningful price declines tend to occur only during extended recessions marked by widespread job losses and foreclosures. As a result, the recent period reflects a healthy stabilization phase, allowing the market to adjust and regain balance after two years of rapid growth.

STABLE PRICES LIKELY FOR TWO MORE YEARS
The trajectory of home prices in Salt Lake County is showing encouraging signs of stability. A comparison between actual price increases from 2020 to 2025 and a hypothetical scenario—assuming no pandemic and historically normal interest rates—suggests that by 2027, both paths will converge near $560,000 (Figure 3). In this hypothetical, a consistent 5.7% annual increase from $380,000 in 2020 would place the median price at $560,150 by 2027. In reality, with recent gains closer to 2% per year, the median price is projected to reach $572,200 by that same year. This means the rapid price escalation of the pandemic era will likely be absorbed over time, returning the market to a more balanced and sustainable rate of price growth by 2027.

HOMEOWNERSHIP FOR YOUNG HOUSEHOLDS DROPS
Affordability challenges have led to a decline in homeownership among young households (ages 25 to 34) in Salt Lake County, but the long-term trend points to significant opportunity. In 2000, nearly 53% of households in this age group owned their homes; by 2024, that share had adjusted to 39%—closely mirroring the national average—with 34,881 young homeowner households. During this period, the total number of young households has grown by 48%, adding 25,000 households. While the number of young homeowners has held steady at around 35,000, this signals a strong base—and a large population of potential future buyers—positioned to enter the market as affordability improves and options expand.

A 2025 RECAP OF MAJOR INDICATORS
Residential sales at low level, median price up less than 2%, and listings up 10%—all conditions of a market trying to regain its footing after the unprecedented three-year impact of the pandemic (Table 2).